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cCarbon News Round-up
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Daily Newsletter

In This Newsletter
1. Feature : Oregon CFP Market Outlook | Analyst Note | April 2024
2. CA LCFS Q4 2023: Renewable diesel continues to wreak havoc when CARB discusses additional short term stringency targets
3. RGGI emissions experience YoY rise as New York remains the focal point for decarbonization

4. Daily Price Change
5. Carbon & Clean Fuel Market News
6. Upcoming Webinars
7. Latest Insights

Oregon CFP Market Outlook | Analyst Note | April 2024
Oregon has set ambitious environmental goals, aiming for a 10% decrease in carbon intensity by 2025 and more significant reductions by 2030 and 2035. Its Clean Fuel Program (OR CFP) has evolved over the years to promote clean fuel activities, with a focus on Zero Emission Vehicles (ZEVs). 

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Key Takeaways:

  • Rapid increase in credit generation coupled with modest deficits takes the bank to a new height with 23.50 M credits.
  • CARB workshop proposed additional step downs (7% and 9%) for CI targets in the short term.
  • Renewable diesel along with biodiesel are rapidly replacing fossil diesel. Q4 2023 data reported 58.16% of the diesel pool is renewable diesel.
  • The average CI of RD fell to 41.62 as tallow replaced UCO as major RD credit generator.
  • ZEV sales have remained strong with sales going above 23% .9of total quarterly vehicle sales.
  • cCarbon model accurately estimated a jump in credit bank in Q4 2023 in line with the actual numbers while the total deficits generated from Gasoline and Diesel (5.53M) were also equal to the forecasted 5.62M.

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Key Takeaways

  • Q1 2024 emissions reach 17.48M sh. tons; increased by 7.37% YoY
  • New York remains largest emitter as Connecticut and Maryland continue steady emission reduction since 2022
  • Three of top five emitting facilities are from New York; no coal plants in top 35 emitting entities

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On Thursday, there was a increase of $0.30 in CCA prices, an increase of 0.24 in RGGI prices, and a decrease of $0.50 in LCFS prices.

Cap-and-Trade

DOE Announces $500 Million to Build a Safe and Reliable Carbon Dioxide Transportation System

(U.S. Department of Energy)

As part of President Biden’s Investing in America agenda, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Office of Fossil Energy and Carbon Management (FECM) today announced up to $500 million available for projects that will help expand carbon dioxide (CO2) transportation infrastructure to help reduce CO2 emissions across the United States.
The United States will likely need to capture and permanently store approximately 400–1,800 million tonnes of CO2 annually to meet its net-zero commitments by 2050. To accommodate the rapid growth of carbon capture and storage industry, we must significantly expand the infrastructure to transport carbon dioxide over the next decade.

Germany notified EU for voluntary cancellation of allowances for plants closed in 2022

(EU Commission)

The EU Commission received a notification from Germany, concerning its intention to voluntarily cancel allowances associated with the closure of electricity generation capacities in two ETS installations in its territory in 2022 due to additional national measures. The notification contains the plants concerned, the method for calculating the volumes to be cancelled, the maximum quantities and the period of cancellation. The maximum quantity of allowances that will be cancelled equals 12.25 MtCO2. . The period over which the allowances are to be cancelled is 2025-2030. 

UK accelerates grid connection for 7.8 GW green capacity

(National Grid)

7.8GW of clean energy projects, more than double the output of Hinkley Point C nuclear power station, have had their connection offer dates brought forward by up to 10 years through the Technical Limits programme, which is allowing projects to connect to lower voltage distribution networks prior to reinforcement of the high voltage transmission network. Networks have so far sent offers to 203 projects totalling 7.8GW with an average connection acceleration of 6.5 years. In total 393 projects are eligible for the programme with the further 190 projects able to receive accelerated offers once they have progressed through the connection offer process. Over 200 clean energy projects will be connected to our grid earlier. This means thousands of homes and businesses will be powered by more renewable energy generated in Britain.

Clean Fuel Standards

Kent secures FEED contract for UK Sustainable Aviation Fuel Project with Fulcrum BioEnergy

(Kent)

Kent has been awarded the FEED (Front End Engineering Design) contract for a groundbreaking initiative spearheaded by Fulcrum BioEnergy. Fulcrum’s NorthPoint project is designed to convert approximately 600,000 tonnes of pre-processed waste into 100 million litres of Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF).

Carbon Offsets

Integrity Council confirms Verra and ART meet its high-integrity benchmark

(ICVCM)

Verified Carbon Standard (VCS, operated by Verra) the world’s largest carbon-crediting program, has met the high-integrity Core Carbon Principles (CCPs) after making significant changes to its procedures, the Integrity Council for the Voluntary Carbon Market announced today as it published the second in an ongoing series of assessment decisions. The Integrity Council Governing Board has also approved the Architecture for REDD+ Transactions (ART, operated by Winrock International) program, which operates globally (through the TREES methodology that is currently under ICVCM multistakeholder assessment). These programs join ACR, CAR and Gold Standard, as the CCP-Eligible Programs under the ICVCM. Together these five programs have a 98% share of the voluntary carbon market.

Sylvera introduces project catalog & screenings: expanding access to high-quality carbon market projects

(Sylvera)

With Sylvera Catalog, investors can now get access to one of the most comprehensive overview of projects in the market with close to 20,000 projects spanning from Biochar to Landfill Methane, all aggregated from 9 (and counting) major registries with daily updates to ensure that you are always looking at the most relevant project data set. Sylvera Catalog and Screenings, mark a significant step forward in simplifying the carbon markets. These new solutions provide unparalleled access to high-quality carbon market projects while streamlining risk assessment processes. 

Exploring Carbon Markets through an Investor Lens: A Cross-Market Perspective

10 am PT, 07th May 2024

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West Coast Compliance Offsets Forecast – Washington, California, and Voluntary Retirements

10 am PT, 15th May 2024

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Finding the Flight Path – Sustainable Aviation Fuels vs CORSIA Offsets

10 am PT, 05th June 2024

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Charting New Waters: The EU ETS Extension to Maritime Transport

10 am PT, 12th June 2024

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Harvest & Capture: Incentive Opportunities for Ethanol Production with CCS

10 am PT, 11th July 2024

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RGGI Market: Forecasting the Landscape | Analyst Note | April 2024 The RGGI market faces a much more daunting task in abatement, as the transition from natural gas to renewables is proving to be much harder than the one from coal to natural gas. 

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Alberta TIER Market Analyst Note: A new model for North American carbon markets | Analyst Note | April 2024The analyst note provides an outlook for Alberta’s Technology Innovation and Emissions Reduction (TIER) program, against the backdrop of the continuous support from the provincial government to build the Carbon Capture and Storage. 

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California LCFS Market Outlook Ahead of New Regulations Coming In | Analyst Note | April 2024
This Analyst Note by cCarbon delves into the demand-supply outlook for the UK Emission Trading Scheme (UK ETS) spanning till 2030. 

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UK ETS Demand-Supply Outlook 2030 | Analyst Note | April 2024
This Analyst Note by cCarbon delves into the demand-supply outlook for the UK Emission Trading Scheme (UK ETS) spanning till 2030. 

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Canada CFR Market Outlook 2030 | Analyst Note | March 2024
Canada CFR Market Outlook 2030 offers an updated outlook for Canada CFR up to 2030. It provides insights on the supply/ demand of credits from different pathways.

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Outlook for Voluntary Renewable Energy and Unbundled Voluntary Certificates in the USA | Insight Report | February 2024
An unprecedented report providing the first comprehensive forecast focused on the Voluntary Renewable Energy Certificates (VRECs) market in the United States.

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Review of Deals for 2023 | Analyst Note | February 2024
This analyst note on Deals 2023, helps in offering an analytical glimpse on corporate climate action across the globe.

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Modeling the Economics of Ethanol Production Coupled with Carbon Capture and Storage | Analyst Note | January 2024
In this analyst note we establish a modeling framework and evaluate the viability of technologically ready ethanol production coupled to capture in the United States. 

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North American Renewable Natural Gas Outlook 2030 | Insight Report | January 2024
In recent years, the North American energy landscape has been undergoing a transformative shift towards sustainability and environmental responsibility

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Global Cap-and-Trade - Liquidity and Market Signals
| Analyst Note | January 2024
This Analyst Note comprehensively explores the intricate dynamics of the carbon market, focusing on proprietary indices and secondary market matrices. 

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cCarbon (pronounced ‘see-carbon’) was launched in 2012 as CaliforniaCarbon, catering initially to the WCI market. Since then, we have grown to provide comprehensive coverage across compliance carbon markets across North American, as well as the global Voluntary Offsets markets. We provide business intelligence, analytics and forecasts for our clients.

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