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Market Coverage - Clean Fuel StandardsFull Market CoverageInSight Primer CoverageInScope CoverageSign up to our NewsletterRFS$2.99 / D3 RIN
Annual Emissions90.25 MMT (RINs Demand – MT CO2e)
view moreMarket Value$40.79 Billion
CA LCFSPrice per Ton$75Annual Emissions21.22 MMT (Annual Deficits)Market Value$1.59 BillionProgram Start Date2011Legislated Until2030Number of Participants571Member StatesCaliforniaCalifornia State's Low Carbon Fuel Standard
The California LCFS was cCarbon’s first foray into Clean Fuel credit markets. CA LCFS forms the second part of ARB’s (the State’s regulator) “belt ‘n’ braces” approach to emission reductions. With transportation emissions at around half of covered emissions of the state cap-and-trade market, when the LCFS market is tight and prices high, there is comparatively less pressure on the CaT market, and vice versa. Neither market can be effectively understood or modeled without fully comprehending the other – our speciality.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Short Term Price Forecast CA LCFS Type 1 Price Rolling four weeks Weekly Weekly Jan 2023 - Accurate directional indication, now includes CFTC positions. LCFS 2030 Fundamental Forecast LCFS Quarterly credits & deficits balance 2030 Yearly Biennially Since 2020, excellent capture of credit growth from RD, the critical fundamental factors LCFS Long-term Credit Price Forecast CA LCFS Credit Price 2030 Yearly Biennially Since 2020, accurately predicted the price fall from +$200 to $60. We have a strong track record in predicting market-defining price moves in California. See our latest work to take advantage of opportunity, or mitigate significant risk.BC LCFSPrice per TonCA$ 347Annual Emissions2.48 MMT (Annual Deficits)Market Value$860.56 MillionProgram Start Date2010Legislated Until2030Number of Participants50Member StatesBritish ColumbiaBritish Columbia's Low Carbon Fuel Standard
The BC LCFS fuel emissions intensity market is driven by a handful of regulated parties who form the entire demand-side. As such, prices are illiquid and with inconsistent discovery. Even though the absolute volumes are small, the region-leading high prices have formed a powerful incentive for the import and use of cleaner fuels within the province. As credit and value creation is as mobile as the fuel it is based on, CFS markets in effect ‘compete’ for feed stocks and clean fuel volumes.
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A small, illiquid market, but one of several competitors for clean fuel volume across North America. No regional Clean Fuel understanding can be complete without accounting for BC's LCFS.OR CFPPrice per Ton$130Annual Emissions2.07 MMT (Annual Deficits)Market Value$269 MillionProgram Start Date2016Legislated Until2030Number of Participants160Member StatesOregonOregon's Clean Fuels Program
OR CFP is an oligopoly with importers of gasoline, diesel, ethanol, biodiesel, and renewable diesel forming the demand side. The program has also voluntary participants such as providers of natural gas, propane, electricity, and hydrogen. Higher credit prices in Oregon CFP is an attractive tool for fuel importers who are looking to set up import infrastructure for the North American clean fuel market. Liquid biofuels such as biodiesel, renewable diesel and ethanol are the major credit generators in this market.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Long Term Supply-Demand Forecast Oregon credit & deficit balance Untill 2030 Quarterly Biennially 2022, consistent prediction of credit bank. A biofuel dominated market that provides a useful alternative to California for clean fuel suppliers. cCarbon pathway-level analysis will help you navigate this market.RFSPrice per Ton$2.99 / D3 RINAnnual Emissions90.25 MMT (RINs Demand - MT CO2e)Market Value$40.79 BillionProgram Start Date2006Legislated UntilOngoing mandateNumber of Participants1284Member StatesUnited States of AmericaOffsets PermittedYesUnited States Federal Renewable Fuels Standard
Implemented in 2005, the US Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) was one of the earliest programs to incentivize ethanol fuel production. The RFS sets the volumetric mandates known as Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for fuels blended into US surface transport vehicles. EPA publishes the percentage standards for the mandate volumes. The annual volume mandates are established in four categories of biofuels: cellulosic, biomass-based diesel, total advanced and renewable. Our understanding of these value-chains was built through CFS programs, but applies equally well to the RFS.
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RFS has strong interactive effects with regional CFS markets across North America, build it into your business projections with us.SAFPrice per Gallon~$8Annual Emissions800 MMTMarket Value$1.5 Billion (2023)Program Start Date~2018Number of Participants~75Member StatesGlobal AirlinesThe Global Sustainable Aviation Fuels Market
The landscape of sustainable aviation fuel is rapidly shifting, and announcements regarding off-take agreements, new facilities, development advancements, and SAF use are happening almost every day. The the major bottlenecks for SAF are the high cost of production, low availability, slow development of SAF technologies, limited long-term policy stability and unavailability of low CI feedstock at scale, but these are being worked through by the airline industry due to the pressing need. The Inflation Reduction Act, SAF Blenders Tax Credit (BTC), Producer Tax Credit will also help scale up of SAF production. Airlines have firmly chosen SAF over voluntary offset retirements and CORSIA. The interactive effects are more significant for renewable diesel facilities, which can switch between generating fuel types.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record SAF Pathway Model Production & Levelized Cost of Production 2030 Quarterly Annually Since 2018 SAF marks a massive global revolution in the transport industry, it will reshape refineries and agriculture for feedstocks. A burgeoning part of the global clean fuel landscape, and central to our analysis.
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