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Market Coverage - Cap-and-TradeFull Market CoverageInSight Primer CoverageInScope CoverageSign up to our NewsletterWCI CaTPrice per Ton$32.99Annual Emissions350 MMTMarket Value$11.7 BillionProgram Start Date2012Legislated Until2030Number of Participants~1000Member StatesCalifornia & QuebecOffsets PermittedYesThe Western Climate Initiative Cap-and-Trade Program
Our first and founding market, referencing our former name as CaliforniaCarbon.info. We’ve been leading analysts in this market since its inception in 2013, the regulators have long been subscribers and regularly quoted our work in board meetings. We’ve maintained consistent market-leading >99% accuracy in emissions forecasting, and have deep-rooted networks with most corners of this market.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Fundamental Supply-Demand Emissions model Annual Surplus-Deficit of CCAs Until 2050 Yearly Semi-Annually Since 2014, Consistent +99% emissions forecast WCI Auction Model WCI Auction Clearing Price Upcoming Auction Quarterly Quarterly Since 2015, Predicted level of price increases 5 years out CCAs are a candidate for the most exciting investment opportunity in carbon right now. We are the market's most specialized analysis firm. Put 2 and 2 together..!Washington CaIPrice per Ton$64.05Annual Emissions68 MMTMarket Value$4.4 BillionProgram Start Date2023Legislated Until2045Number of Participants~200Member StatesWashingtonOffsets PermittedYesWashington State's Cap-and-Invest Program
Our coverage started in the regulatory process years before the market opened to much regional fanfare in 2023. Our pre-market opening price forecast range of $46-$50 uncovered the first auction price of $48.50 exactly. The similarities of structure with the WCI makes for an interesting dynamic, as does the potential for linkage post-2027, both these factors playing well within our suite of interlinking models.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Fundamental Supply-Demand Emissions Forecast WCA Annual Surplus Until 2050 Yearly Semi-Annually Since 2022 Auction Price Forecast WCA Auction Closing Price Until 2050 Yearly Quarterly Since 2022, Successfully forecasted first auction closing price 6 months ahead of time The newest American market, the highest and most volatile per ton emission prices, huge questions concerning offset supply and use... an edge in understanding is amplified here.RGGI
Price per Ton$13.8Annual Emissions100 MMTMarket Value$1.4 BillionProgram Start Date2009Legislated Until2030Number of Participants~270Member StatesConnecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, and VirginiaOffsets PermittedYes (in theory)The Regional Greenhouse Gas Initiative
RGGI is the oldest carbon emissions market in North America. We’ve reported on it for a decade and have had a full product on it since 2020. Its structuring and Supply-Demand balance have lessened interest in it as an investable asset, nonetheless a clear forward picture of RGGI is important to understand the decision-sets of several major American energy firms.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Short Term Price Forecast RGGI Allowance Price Rolling 12 months Monthly Quarterly Since 2021 RGGI Fundamental Emissions Model RGGI Covered Emissions Until 2030 Annual Annual Since 2021 Where member states change more often than prices, but RGGI has been an early East Coast framework for climate legislation, and it provides a foundation for the future.Alberta TIERPrice per TonC$65 (US$ 49.35)Annual Emissions140 MMTMarket Value$9.1 BillionProgram Start Date2020Legislated Until2030Number of Participants440Member StatesAlbertaAlberta Province's Technology Innovation Emissions Reduction regulation
The TIER market was instituted in response to the Canadian Federal regulation mandating a minimum provincial pricing on carbon. It is a facility-level output based system which includes offsets, recognition for removals, and regulatory fund credits. The province’s major oil and gas sector is the heart of the market, as such potential widespread application of CCUS to these facilities could accelerate global roll-out through learning-by-doing and technological gains.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Tier Fundamental Forecast Net Credits/Deficits 2030 Yearly Annually 2023 Alberta is a major piece in Canada's carbon market mosaic - oil & gas accounts for 25% of national emissions, so the TIER market is the epicenter of that transformation. We have the understanding of technology, emissions, offsets, and CCUS to help you crack it.EU ETSPrice per Ton85 EUR ($94.35)Annual Emissions1300 MMTMarket Value$111 BillionProgram Start Date2005Legislated Until2050Number of Participants~10,000Member StatesEU (27) + Liechtenstein, Iceland, & NorwayOffsets PermittedNoThe European Union's Emission Trading System
The EU ETS is the world’s longest-running carbon emissions market, and the largest too (for now). Not in cCarbon’s original American focus, we have since extended our coverage and modeling to include Europe. Its dominant position as the most liquid and highly-traded market, driven by investors who often have exposure to other international carbon markets, means that the EU ETS is a significant driver of global carbon sentiment with strong interactive effects.
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Forecast Target Variable Horizon Resolution Updated Since & Track Record Fundamental Emissions Forecast EUA Annual Surplus-Deficit 2030 Yearly Annually Since 2022 Short Term Price Forecast EUA Price Rolling four weeks Weekly Weekly Since December 2022, EUA prices have experienced significant flucatuations since feb'2023 As we expand our scope and markets show intercontinental interactions, we are bringing our depth of carbon market modeling expertise to bear in Europe and beyond. Just try it, compare us with your current research provider...
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